Economic
Oxford Economics Downgrades Mozambique 2026 Growth Forecast
Oxford Economics cuts Mozambique’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.3%, citing floods, aluminium smelter closure, and LNG platform downtime as key drags on exports and output.
Oxford Economics has revised down its 2026 growth forecast for Mozambique to 0.3%, from a previous estimate of 2.5%, reflecting a more difficult external and domestic environment. The downgrade follows disruptive floods that damaged crops and infrastructure, expected closure of the Mozal aluminium smelter, and a scheduled maintenance halt at Eni’s Coral Sul floating LNG platform, which together are projected to reduce exports, production, and overall economic activity. Despite a 4.67% rebound in GDP in the final quarter of 2025, the country still recorded a small annual recession, and the consultancy warns of constrained growth, weaker investment, and softer consumer spending in 2026. The forecast underscores renewed risks to Mozambique’s recovery following previous shocks from post‑election unrest and security incidents in Cabo Delgado.
- Status
- active
- Location
- Maputo, Mozambique
- Date added
- 2026-03-26 04:37 UTC
- Last updated
- 2026-03-26 04:37 UTC
- Source
- Club of Mozambique
- Connected threats
- Not provided