IMF and central bank issue diverging growth forecasts for Morocco in 2026

On March 25, 2026, the International Monetary Fund published its Article IV consultation statement for Morocco, projecting real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026, supported by recovery and investment. On the same day, Morocco’s central bank, Bank Al‑Maghrib, cited stronger momentum, forecasting GDP expansion of 5.6% after a March 17 policy meeting in Rabat. The divergence reflects differing assessments of the impact of higher public investment, ongoing structural reforms, and global risks. Both institutions recognize elevated public spending on transport, logistics, and agriculture as key growth drivers, but the central bank places greater emphasis on domestic demand and investment resilience. The IMF highlighted vulnerabilities linked to external shocks, while the central bank signaled a more optimistic near‑term outlook. This split in projections underscores the challenge of calibrating monetary and fiscal policy in a climate of persistent uncertainty.