Economic
Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth could slow from a 2.1% baseline to 1.8% if the Middle East conflict lasts
Thailand’s economic outlook weakens due to prolonged Middle East conflict, risking slower GDP growth, higher inflation, and a drop in tourism.
TRIS Rating warns that Thailand’s GDP growth in 2026 could slow to 1.8% if the Middle East conflict lasts three months, and to as low as 1.0% if it continues for six months, compared with a 2.1% baseline scenario. The conflict is expected to drive up energy prices and overall inflation, while also reducing tourist arrivals, which would hit key service sectors and widen the current‑account deficit. These combined pressures increase Thailand’s vulnerability to external shocks and could constrain fiscal space for domestic stimulus.
- Status
- active
- Location
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Date added
- 2026-03-25 22:02 UTC
- Last updated
- 2026-03-25 22:02 UTC
- Connected threats
-
- Not Available